Cars that Drive Themselves, Ctd

Tim Lee has made a bet with Ryan Avent:

I bet you $500 that on your daughter’s 16th birthday, it won’t be possible and legal for someone with no driver’s license to hop into a self-driving car in DC, give it an address in Philly, take a nap, and wake up at her destination 3-4 hours later (depending on traffic, obviously).
The car must be generally commercially available–not a research prototype or limited regulatory trial. It can be either purchased or a rented “taxi.” And obviously there can’t be anyone helping to guide the vehicle either in the car or over the air.

Of course TAE has an opinion about this. I think it is naive to believe that one day soon we'll all just "switch over" to driverless cars. Instead, I imagine that Lee will win the bet but Avent will win the war: by 2026, vehicles will be available with certain levels of autonomy that continue to incrementally increase safety for passengers. Perhaps his daughter will still need a driver's license, but won't need to use her driving skills except in the event of severe weather, or in parking lots or National Parks or somesuch.

For more on driverless cars, see my entry here and embedded links. We've been over this a lot at TAE.
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