Consider a recent study by economists David Berri and Rob Simmons. While they found that Wonderlic scores play a large role in determining when QBs are selected in the draft -- the only equally important variables are height and the 40-yard dash -- the metric proved all but useless in predicting performance. The only correlation the researchers could find suggested that higher Wonderlic scores actually led to slightly worse QB performance, at least during rookie years. In other words, intelligence (or, rather, measured intelligence), which has long been viewed as a prerequisite for playing QB, would seem to be a disadvantage for some guys.
But you have to wonder: if NFL teams desire smart quarterbacks...wouldn't there be a natural negative correlation? Really bad NFL teams have the next-year-advantage of getting an early draft position...which makes it more likely they can draft a quarterback who is considered desirable due to his Wonderlic score (as well as other factors, obviously). So you end up with Ryan Fitzpatrck scoring a ridiculous 48 on the Wonderlic, but playing for the consistently deplorable, poorly coached Buffalo Bills. Alex Smith scored a 40 but has been mediocre for the Niners. The timeless question must be asked: "but how would (insert player name here) do if he were playing for (insert team name here)?"
The answer, of course, is that quarterback performance is not so simple that it can be determined by a quarterback alone; he needs a good center and offensive line. He needs a good set of receivers to consistently have good hands and to get open quickly. He needs a smart offensive coordinator to play to his strengths. And perhaps most important of all, he needs to be lucky.
I am not saying Lehrer's pet quality, grit, isn't important for quarterback performance. But as long as there has been grass on a football field people have been searching for a way to predictively quantify a prospect's future ability, and the fact of the matter is...there are 22 people on the football field when the ball is snapped...and you can't expect one guy to determine the outcome of a game because he threw a bunch of balls through an old tire every weekend.
Here's what I'd like those economists he cites to study next: quarterback performance vs. number of times sacked. I humbly submit that there is a strong correlation there...and a quarterback getting sacked has less to do with his own physical/mental abilities (Vince Young = outlier) than it does the strength and quality of his Offensive Lineman.
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