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Wednesday, 1 May 2013

I promise to stop writing about STEM soon. Just not yet.

Posted on 13:57 by hony
Imagine you are a tech company that makes widgets. You've gotten a factory in China to make the parts for the widgets for a tiny amount. You've got laborers working for minimum wage assembling the widgets. You've got salespeople making minimum wage selling the widgets.

How can you possibly make the widgets cheaper?

Perhaps the most obvious way is to pay the people doing R&D on the widgets minimum wage. Think about it: the R&D folks are still demanding $50-60k or more for their time. That's really expensive compared to a minimum wage assembler who makes $16k.
But you can't just cut these people's pay by 75%, because they'd leave and go work somewhere else, obviously! There's lots of high paying jobs for widget R&D specialists!

Unless, of course:
1) Foreign nations over-produce huge quantities of just-good-enough R&D laborers to drive down the cost, coupled with a strong domestic immigration policy to get those low-cost R&D laborers to the U.S. to replace their high-priced counterparts.

2) Domestic colleges create a surplus of scientists and engineers to make the R&D labor supply pool crowded, and drive down wages. This is coupled with an aggressive domestic student loan policy to maximize the number of humans economically (but not necessarily otherwise) qualified to go to college.

Look folks, there's no law requiring companies to pay engineers and scientists lots of money. And if demand were really high for these people, then wages would be going up. Instead, engineering salaries have been decreasing since the 1990's (Scroll down to Figure R. Engineering salaries are up 25% since 1998, while over that time inflation is up roughly 43%).

Which indicates to me that the labor pool is moving from demand driven to supply driven. Now, I'd never try to pitch this as a giant global program to drive down wages...because that's never happened before. No one has ever done that. Right?


I've written more on the STEM "shortage" here and here.
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Tuesday, 30 April 2013

STEM Graduate Surplus, Infighting Amongst Engineers

Posted on 07:16 by hony
So I posted the Atlantic article on Reddit in an engineering sub, and the backlash was palpable. One /u/ in particular went after the data, pointing out that the "53.7% of engineering grads that found a job in the first 12 months after graduation" was from 2009, and "of course things were bad in 2009!"

My response was "I'm not sure what would have occurred economically since 2009 to provide a STEM labor market correction? Unemployment nationwide has only ticked down a bit, it seems logical that other economic indicators would also have remained relatively underwhelming."

In response, this graph was pointed out to me, from a Bay Area Economic Council report published in December 2012.
Given a cursory glance, yes, STEM jobs are doing better than "Total Occupations" in that total unemployment since 2000 is up 10% or so (important note: this is since 2000, not year over year percentage changes). And yes, since 2009 there has been an uptick of STEM hiring and it is more pronounced than the Total Occupations category. And so I was about to concede the point until I actually read the report.
And lo and behold, Figure 8:
They conveniently broke down the Stem Occupations category into sub categories. And wouldn't you know it: engineers are in the shitter. Not only are engineers net negative jobs since 2000, we are actually doing worse than the population at large.


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Monday, 29 April 2013

There is no STEM graduate shortage.

Posted on 11:35 by hony
High school seniors: consider yourself warned.

- In computer and information science and in engineering, U.S. colleges graduate 50 percent more students than are hired into those fields each year.

- Wages have remained flat, with real wages hovering around their late 1990s levels.

- Percentage of Engineering graduates that have a job within 12 months of graduation: 53.7%

More here.
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Sunday, 28 April 2013

Rampant Sexism in America IS Still A Thing

Posted on 08:16 by hony
You need not go far to find a good example. Here's Business Insider's list of "30 Most Important Women Under 30 In Tech"

Good luck finding a fat woman, or a pimply-faced woman in there. Which, while being obviously sexist, is DOUBLY so when you remember that this is "in tech".


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Monday, 22 April 2013

Polytheism, Monotheism, Atheism, and Space Aliens

Posted on 08:44 by hony
What if, later this afternoon, an Intelligent alien race lands here on Earth and makes contact with us. What if they contact our leaders and after exchanging business cards, they ask "how advanced are you?"
We humans interpret this as we can and respond "currently we can control nuclear fission but not nuclear fusion."
"No, that's not what we mean," replies the Alien. "How advanced are you, as in are you polytheistic, monotheistic, or atheistic?"
We respond "the majority of humans are monotheistic."
"Oh, okay," replies the Alien. "See you in another 200 years."
"Wait, what?!" we ask.
"Well, you see," replies the Alien, "there are more than 2,000 Intelligent species in the Universe that we've cataloged so far, not including you 'humans'. And of them, all 2,000+ followed this exact same socio-developmental pattern: polytheism, monotheism, atheism. And it turns out, interestingly, that when an Intelligent species reaches a plurality of atheists, that milestone means they're usually socially, mentally, and emotionally ready to join the interstellar community."

The question I have is this: given this information, that 2,000 out of 2,000 Intelligent species had all followed our species current religious trend, and it had ended in planetary atheism...how many monotheists would drop religion?
My guess is many would, but not nearly all of them. More likely is that new membership would massively plummet, as the young hoped they'd get to join the interstellar community once they shed the suddenly-archaic-seeming belief systems of their elders. But many Muslims, Jews, and Christians would die believing that they were right, and 2,000+ Intelligent species of Aliens were wrong. Earth Exceptionalism.

The case can be flipped around. What if the Aliens arrived and reported that of these 2,000+ species of Intelligent star-explorers, pretty much all of them (except the cyborg race of Planet 95C2) had a strong monotheistic religion on their planets. The belief in One God wasn't just a plurality on Earth, it was literally Universal. How many atheists would take up a religion, in this case? I bet some would, but most would just argue that obviously Faith isn't just an Earth construct but rather a universal construct of Intelligence...all Intelligences in the Universe share this flaw.

My guess is this: it is much easier to strip monotheists of their beliefs than it is to convince atheists to believe.


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Wednesday, 17 April 2013

Modern Bomb Making In America

Posted on 05:07 by hony
I don't condone blowing up innocent people. I don't recommend anyone build explosive devices. I hope the world is a peaceful one, and that my children grow up in comfort and security and without the fear of terrorism.

That said, I want to correct something going around. Federal authorities and the media are latching on to the idea that the bombs used in Boston were "sophisticated" because they used "a battery pack and a circuitboard." I feel that I should point out that a Furby has a circuitboard and batteries. A solar-powered LED patio umbrella has a circuitboard and batteries. The watch on your wrist, if not hand-wound, has a circuitboard and battery. Circuitboards aren't this holy object that only a tiny cadre of madmen are capable of producing.

The bombs in Boston, unless authorities dramatically change their tune, probably had less than $2 of electronics in them. It's likely the only thing on the circuitboard was a SPST relay (costing less than a dollar) and a timing mechanism ($1 or less depending on type). Once again, I do not want any innocent lives ended with bomb making, but people need to realize that any engineer worth his or her salt could put a 'pressure cooker bomb' together in about a day.

The point I want to make is that all day, almost every day, hundreds of thousands of people all over this country who are perfectly capable of making bombs freely choose not to do so. Rather than be scared that there are so many potential bomb makers in America...can we stop for a second and realize that 99.9999% of those of us capable of easily manufacturing bombs choose not to do so? America is a really, really safe place.


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Friday, 12 April 2013

An Update

Posted on 06:03 by hony
True to my word, I've been writing. The word count stands at 32,158.
For those keeping score, I've completed 4 of 15 planned chapters.


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hony
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